Ready to Defuse the Bond Bomb?

Interest rates measure the price of money. That makes them the world’s ultimate commodity. Like most commodities, the price of money has been falling for a long time. The yield on T-year Treasury notes topped… Read More

Key Commodities Bottoming: Part 1

The winds are shifting. Critical commodities like corn, soybeans, sugar, hogs and coffee appear to be taking a cue from the energy sector and forming what we believe could be multi-year bottoms in the entire… Read More

Will African Swine Fever Cause Pigs to Fly?

A deadly and extremely contagious virus is threatening China’s hog producers. African swine fever (ASF) has been found in pigs transported from Northern to Southern China. ASF has the potential to kill every single hog… Read More

Silver is Back in the Bargain Bin

There is probably no more frustrating market to trade than silver. The poor man’s gold has a nasty habit of breaking all the rules. It refuses to rally when all indicators seem to point upward,… Read More

How to Play the “Trump Dump” in Soybeans

It’s on! The multi-front trade war that neither exporters nor importers wanted is heating up. While the U.S. stock market has shrugged it off so far, agricultural commodities affected by China’s 25% retaliatory import tariffs… Read More

Crude Reality: Is $100 the Next Stop?

The productivity miracle of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries was fueled by crude oil and its derivatives. Diesel made from crude oil powered tractors and combines. Farmers, aided by fertilizers synthesized from the same,… Read More

Is Coffee the Last “Cheap” Commodity?

Option traders know that volatility is perhaps one of the most important factors determining options prices. Extremely volatile markets tend to have expensive options. Extremely quiet markets tend to have cheap options. That’s why some… Read More

Bottom Near in Sugar?

We think so. High crude oil prices incentivize the use of ethanol as a gasoline additive in the US and as a substitute for gasoline in Brazil. The US uses its huge corn crop to… Read More