The current collapse in 10-year Treasury notes and the accompanying explosion in yields is breathtaking. We’ve been trading futures and options since 1984. We cannot remember seeing anything like this in what is typically a… Read More
Euro Is on Sale
Heading to Europe this summer? You may be in for a pleasant surprise; the euro is on sale. At just 109.00 to the dollar, the euro is approaching lows made during the 2020 Covid collapse…. Read More
Contrarian Call in Corn
Weather and war are fueling powerful bull markets in corn. Huge amounts of North American corn are used to produce ethanol which is mixed into gasoline. What really intrigues us right now is the relationship… Read More
Downside Target Hit in T-Notes: Exit All Puts
The luck of the Irish came a day early yesterday. June T-note futures hit and then dipped below our most recent downside target of 124-00 before recovering after the Fed’s announcement of a 25-basis point… Read More
Exit Half of March Bear Spreads In E-mini S&P
Fed tightening, war in Europe, skyrocketing energy prices: what else can be thrown at the S&P? The Nasdaq is already in bear market territory. Will the S&P 500 follow? With only 10 days left until… Read More
War Puts S&P Within Range of 4000 Target
The rumblings of war in Europe grow louder. Vladimir Putin’s decision to recognize the two breakaway provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent territories adds to growing evidence of his determination to attack Ukraine. The… Read More
Blow-Off Top in Beans?
Soybeans started today’s session strong. Follow-through buying from yesterday’s bullish World Supply & Demand Estimate (WASDE) release sent prices right through last May’s $16.23 per bushel high with ease. The USDA reduced estimates for both… Read More
Target Hit in T-notes: Take Cash Off the Table and “Roll” Positions
March T-note futures fell hard on Friday following the release of a better-than-expected jobs report. Non-farm payrolls rose 467,000 – roughly triple what the market was expecting. Prices sliced through our downside target of 127-00… Read More
“Don’t Fight the Fed” Redux
“Don’t fight the Fed,” should be the operative rule in the S&P 500. Jerome Powell and Company signaled they were going to take the free-money punch bowl away. The told us they were going to… Read More
Capitulation or Collapse in S&P 500?
The S&P 500 is getting absolutely crushed as we write this 2 hours before the close on Monday. The CME E-mini futures just bounced from a low of 4212 – a decline of 4% from… Read More